System Development & Application
|
3064-3069

Improved TCN model and its application in short-term photovoltaic power interval prediction

Song Shaojian
Jiang Yiyuan
Liu Bin
School of Electrical Engineering, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China

Abstract

In order to improve the accuracy of PV power prediction, this paper proposed a new short-term PV power interval prediction model based on TCN. Firstly, the model used the soft threshold and attention mechanism of DRSN to modify the residual module of TCN so as to enhance its capability to extract useful features, and reduce the impact of redundant features. Then, it adopted the SSA to search the optimal hyper-parameters automatically, such as the convolutional kernel size and the number of TCN layers in the convolutional layer of the TCN, to overcome the drawback of the original TCN with insufficient receptive fields. Next, this paper applied the KDE to analyze the error of the point prediction results of the proposed improved TCN short-term PV power forecasting model to obtain its output interval. Finally, comparative simulation experiments show that the RMSE of the proposed SSA-DRSN-TCN model can reach 0.27, which is better than those of LSTM, GRU, CNN-LSTM and TCN, and the KDE method can accurately describe the PV power volatility intervals at 80%, 90% and 95% confidence levels, the proposed model verifies the effectiveness in improving the performance of PV power prediction.

Foundation Support

国家自然科学基金资助项目(61863003)
广西自然科学基金资助项目(2016GXNSFAA380327)

Publish Information

DOI: 10.19734/j.issn.1001-3695.2023.02.0066
Publish at: Application Research of Computers Printed Article, Vol. 40, 2023 No. 10
Section: System Development & Application
Pages: 3064-3069
Serial Number: 1001-3695(2023)10-028-3064-06

Publish History

[2023-05-04] Accepted Paper
[2023-10-05] Printed Article

Cite This Article

宋绍剑, 姜屹远, 刘斌. 一种TCN的改进模型及其在短期光伏功率区间预测的应用 [J]. 计算机应用研究, 2023, 40 (10): 3064-3069. (Song Shaojian, Jiang Yiyuan, Liu Bin. Improved TCN model and its application in short-term photovoltaic power interval prediction [J]. Application Research of Computers, 2023, 40 (10): 3064-3069. )

About the Journal

  • Application Research of Computers Monthly Journal
  • Journal ID ISSN 1001-3695
    CN  51-1196/TP

Application Research of Computers, founded in 1984, is an academic journal of computing technology sponsored by Sichuan Institute of Computer Sciences under the Science and Technology Department of Sichuan Province.

Aiming at the urgently needed cutting-edge technology in this discipline, Application Research of Computers reflects the mainstream technology, hot technology and the latest development trend of computer application research at home and abroad in a timely manner. The main contents of the journal include high-level academic papers in this discipline, the latest scientific research results and major application results. The contents of the columns involve new theories of computer discipline, basic computer theory, algorithm theory research, algorithm design and analysis, blockchain technology, system software and software engineering technology, pattern recognition and artificial intelligence, architecture, advanced computing, parallel processing, database technology, computer network and communication technology, information security technology, computer image graphics and its latest hot application technology.

Application Research of Computers has many high-level readers and authors, and its readers are mainly senior and middle-level researchers and engineers engaged in the field of computer science, as well as teachers and students majoring in computer science and related majors in colleges and universities. Over the years, the total citation frequency and Web download rate of Application Research of Computers have been ranked among the top of similar academic journals in this discipline, and the academic papers published are highly popular among the readers for their novelty, academics, foresight, orientation and practicality.


Indexed & Evaluation

  • The Second National Periodical Award 100 Key Journals
  • Double Effect Journal of China Journal Formation
  • the Core Journal of China (Peking University 2023 Edition)
  • the Core Journal for Science
  • Chinese Science Citation Database (CSCD) Source Journals
  • RCCSE Chinese Core Academic Journals
  • Journal of China Computer Federation
  • 2020-2022 The World Journal Clout Index (WJCI) Report of Scientific and Technological Periodicals
  • Full-text Source Journal of China Science and Technology Periodicals Database
  • Source Journal of China Academic Journals Comprehensive Evaluation Database
  • Source Journals of China Academic Journals (CD-ROM Version), China Journal Network
  • 2017-2019 China Outstanding Academic Journals with International Influence (Natural Science and Engineering Technology)
  • Source Journal of Top Academic Papers (F5000) Program of China's Excellent Science and Technology Journals
  • Source Journal of China Engineering Technology Electronic Information Network and Electronic Technology Literature Database
  • Source Journal of British Science Digest (INSPEC)
  • Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) Source Journal
  • Russian Journal of Abstracts (AJ, VINITI) Source Journals
  • Full-text Journal of EBSCO, USA
  • Cambridge Scientific Abstracts (Natural Sciences) (CSA(NS)) core journals
  • Poland Copernicus Index (IC)
  • Ulrichsweb (USA)