Algorithm Research & Explore
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693-698

Monte-Carlo simulation based water quality prediction and eutrophication risk assessment method of lakes

Wang Xiaoyi
Zhou Yuqin
Zhao Zhiyao
Wang Li
Xu Jiping
Yu Jiabin
Key Lab of Light Industry of China Internet Industry Big Data, Beijing Technology & Business University, Beijing 100048, China

Abstract

The existing water quality prediction research is usually in a form of single-valued prediction, and analyzes eutrophication status on this basis, which has a certain degree of haphazard and uncertainty. Combining with the water quality kinetic model, this paper proposed a water quality prediction and eutrophication risk assessment method based on Monte-Carlo simulation. Based on the prior distribution of water quality index and model parameters of water quality kinetic model, it used Monte-Carlo simulation to predict the evolution of water quality index to obtain the probability distribution of water quality indicators in future time and achieved water quality prediction. Further, it constructed an integrated eutrophication status index. Combining with the predicted results of water quality indexes, it calculated the probability distribution of comprehensive nutritional status index and the probability of different nutritional status to assess the eutrophication risk. The simulation results show that the proposed method can effectively predict the water quality and analyze eutrophication status, with more comprehensive consideration and accuracy. Meanwhile, it overcomes the haphazard brought by single-valued prediction result.

Foundation Support

国家社会科学基金资助项目(19BGL184)
国家自然科学青年科学基金资助项目(61903008)
北京优秀人才培养资助青年拔尖团队项目(2018000026833TD01)

Publish Information

DOI: 10.19734/j.issn.1001-3695.2018.08.0655
Publish at: Application Research of Computers Printed Article, Vol. 37, 2020 No. 3
Section: Algorithm Research & Explore
Pages: 693-698
Serial Number: 1001-3695(2020)03-012-0693-06

Publish History

[2020-03-05] Printed Article

Cite This Article

王小艺, 周宇琴, 赵峙尧, 等. 基于蒙特卡罗仿真的湖库水质预测及富营养化风险评估方法 [J]. 计算机应用研究, 2020, 37 (3): 693-698. (Wang Xiaoyi, Zhou Yuqin, Zhao Zhiyao, et al. Monte-Carlo simulation based water quality prediction and eutrophication risk assessment method of lakes [J]. Application Research of Computers, 2020, 37 (3): 693-698. )

About the Journal

  • Application Research of Computers Monthly Journal
  • Journal ID ISSN 1001-3695
    CN  51-1196/TP

Application Research of Computers, founded in 1984, is an academic journal of computing technology sponsored by Sichuan Institute of Computer Sciences under the Science and Technology Department of Sichuan Province.

Aiming at the urgently needed cutting-edge technology in this discipline, Application Research of Computers reflects the mainstream technology, hot technology and the latest development trend of computer application research at home and abroad in a timely manner. The main contents of the journal include high-level academic papers in this discipline, the latest scientific research results and major application results. The contents of the columns involve new theories of computer discipline, basic computer theory, algorithm theory research, algorithm design and analysis, blockchain technology, system software and software engineering technology, pattern recognition and artificial intelligence, architecture, advanced computing, parallel processing, database technology, computer network and communication technology, information security technology, computer image graphics and its latest hot application technology.

Application Research of Computers has many high-level readers and authors, and its readers are mainly senior and middle-level researchers and engineers engaged in the field of computer science, as well as teachers and students majoring in computer science and related majors in colleges and universities. Over the years, the total citation frequency and Web download rate of Application Research of Computers have been ranked among the top of similar academic journals in this discipline, and the academic papers published are highly popular among the readers for their novelty, academics, foresight, orientation and practicality.


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